How the FIFA men's world ranking works
Why can a draw move a team up the FIFA ranking, and a win barely move it at all?
Because FIFA does not award points for results. It compares each result with what the two teams' points said should happen. A team that does better than expected gains points; a team that does worse loses them. The two teams gain and lose the same amount.
So:
- a strong team that beats a much weaker one gains very little, because the win was expected;
- a weaker team that draws with a stronger one gains points, because a draw was better than expected;
- the stronger team in that draw loses the same points.
How much is at stake depends on the match. A friendly is worth the least and a World Cup knock-out match the most, twelve times as much as a friendly played outside FIFA's international dates.
Points carry over from match to match. There is no averaging and nothing expires with time: a team's total is its total after its last match.
The one thing to remember: in FIFA's ranking you gain by beating expectations, not by winning.
The formula
After each match, each team's points are updated:
P = P(before) + I × (W − We)
| Letter | What it is | Values |
|---|---|---|
| P(before) | The team's points before the match | |
| I | The importance of the match | 5 to 60, from the table below |
| W | The result | 1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, 0 for a defeat |
| We | The expected result | Worked out from the two teams' points (below) |
The expected result
We = 1 ÷ (10^(−dr ÷ 600) + 1), where dr is the team's points minus the opponent's points before the match.
Two teams level on points each have an expected result of 0.5. The further a team is above its opponent, the closer its expected result gets to 1, and the less a win can add.
FIFA's own example: Team A has 1,300 points and beats Team B, which has 1,500, in a qualifier for a continental championship (I = 25). Team A gains 17 points and moves to 1,317; Team B loses the same and drops to 1,483.
The importance of the match
| Match | Importance (I) |
|---|---|
| Friendly outside the International Match Calendar windows | 5 |
| Friendly inside the windows | 10 |
| Nations League group match | 15 |
| Nations League play-off or final match | 25 |
| Qualifier for a continental championship or the World Cup | 25 |
| Continental championship final tournament, before the quarter-finals | 35 |
| Continental championship final tournament, from the quarter-finals | 40 |
| World Cup final tournament, before the quarter-finals | 50 |
| World Cup final tournament, from the quarter-finals | 60 |
The methodology also gives all FIFA Confederations Cup matches 40.
Penalty shoot-outs
A match decided by a shoot-out counts as a draw for the loser (W = 0.5) and as half a win for the winner (W = 0.75). If a match has a winner after normal or extra time and a shoot-out is still played, for example to settle a two-legged tie, it counts as a normal win and defeat.
Knock-out matches at a final tournament cost nothing
In the knock-out rounds of a final tournament (a World Cup or a continental championship), a team whose result would take points away keeps its points instead. That covers a defeat, and also a shoot-out win against a weaker team that would otherwise cost points. FIFA added this to protect teams that have reached the knock-out rounds.
A worked example
Made up to show the arithmetic. Team A has 1,150 points and Team B 1,250. They meet in a World Cup qualifier (I = 25). Team A's expected result is 1 ÷ (10^(100 ÷ 600) + 1), about 0.41; Team B's is about 0.59.
| Result | Team A | Team B |
|---|---|---|
| A wins | +14.9 | −14.9 |
| Draw | +2.4 | −2.4 |
| B wins | −10.1 | +10.1 |
The same draw in a friendly inside the windows (I = 10) moves about 0.9 points.
Now make the gap 400 points: Team A on 1,150 meets Team C on 1,550 in the same kind of qualifier. Team C's expected result is about 0.82. If C wins, it gains only about 4.4 points; if A holds C to a draw, A gains about 8.1.
How it started
FIFA introduced SUM in August 2018, after two years of testing. To start it, every team kept its place from the old ranking and was given points from 1,600 for No. 1 down in steps of 4 (1,592 for No. 3, 1,204 for No. 100, 804 for No. 200). The results of the 2018 World Cup were the first to be added.
The old system averaged points over four years, gave older results less value and weighted matches by confederation. SUM does none of these, so a team from any confederation can climb on results alone.
Where to see it
FIFA publishes the men's ranking on inside.fifa.com, under FIFA World Ranking.
Variations
| Ranking | Covered here |
|---|---|
| FIFA men's world ranking | Yes |
| FIFA women's world ranking | No. FIFA describes it as an earlier, modified Elo method; its document is not saved |
| The pre-2018 ranking (averaged over four years) | Only as background |